NYC Tourism Forecast Crumbles as Trump’s Global Policies Spark Widespread Travel Retaliation
New York City, once poised for a record-setting tourism year, is now confronting a stark reversal. Officials have slashed their 2025 forecast, citing a troubling decline in international visitors—an outcome many trace directly to mounting global unease over President Trump’s foreign and immigration policies.
According to updated figures released by NYC Tourism + Conventions, the city now expects 64.1 million visitors, a sharp drop from the initial 67.6 million projection. That revision reflects 800,000 fewer foreign tourists than anticipated, partially offset by a modest rise of 400,000 domestic travelers.
International Backlash Undermines NYC’s Recovery
In early 2025, New York seemed set for a triumphant return to pre-pandemic tourism levels. Optimism surged after years of uncertainty. But that momentum has rapidly eroded, with key international markets turning their backs on U.S. destinations.
The catalyst? A wave of aggressive policy decisions from President Trump, including escalating trade wars, inflammatory remarks about allied nations, and intensified immigration enforcement. The administration’s rhetoric and actions, such as musing about annexing Canada and threatening stiff tariffs, have triggered diplomatic fallout and real-world consequences for U.S. tourism.
Nowhere is this being felt more acutely than in New York City.
Canada Boycotts and European Anxiety
One of the most concerning developments is the dramatic pullback from Canadian travelers. Historically a vital demographic for New York’s tourism industry, many Canadians are actively avoiding trips to the U.S. in response to Trump’s proposal to make their country the "51st state." As a result, tourism from Canada has dropped significantly.
Beyond North America, anxiety is growing across Europe. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has adopted a more aggressive stance under the current administration, with multiple reports of tourists being detained without clear cause. One case involved two German citizens held for four weeks—an incident that has rattled would-be travelers across the continent.
John Fitzpatrick, a Manhattan hotelier with properties in New York and Ireland, confirmed these fears. “When I talk to European guests, it’s not just about the tariffs anymore. They’re genuinely worried they might be harassed or even detained just for visiting,” he said.
Economic Fallout: Billions in Lost Revenue
The implications go far beyond foot traffic. International travelers are essential to New York's economic engine. While they represent a smaller share of total visitors, they account for nearly half of all tourist spending. In 2024, overall tourist expenditures reached $51 billion, but that number is expected to fall by $4 billion in 2025.
The consequences ripple across Broadway, fine dining, museums, and the hotel industry. Over 260,000 jobs in the city are linked to tourism, many now vulnerable as international demand weakens.
Despite the bleak outlook, NYC Tourism + Conventions continues its global promotional efforts. CEO Julie Coker launched the “With Love + Liberty, New York City” campaign to reinforce the city's reputation as a hub of diversity and openness. But messaging alone may not be enough to offset the broader political climate.
Visitor Data Confirms the Slide
Airline entry data supports the downturn: 117,000 fewer international passengers have arrived at JFK and Newark so far in 2025 compared to the same period last year. And the slowdown isn’t isolated to airports.
The Empire State Building Observatory reported a 4.6% decline in visitor numbers in Q1. TopView Sightseeing, which runs double-decker bus tours across Manhattan, has seen an even sharper drop, down 20 to 25% from a year ago.
Company owner Asen Kostadinov attributes the decline to shifting travel priorities. “We’ve noticed a lot more price sensitivity among tourists, especially those from abroad,” he explained. His lower-cost operations—bike rentals and boat tours—are faring better, while his Manhattan bus tours are struggling.
Meanwhile, business at his sightseeing operations in London has increased—an ironic twist highlighting how global travelers are actively choosing alternatives to the U.S.
Local Businesses Cut Staff, Cancel Investments
The slowdown is forcing difficult decisions. Kostadinov has already laid off corporate staff and delayed plans for a new bus depot. Hotel bookings citywide are also under pressure. Despite a stable occupancy rate, summer reservations are not keeping pace with last year’s levels.
“It feels like we’re getting hit from every direction,” Fitzpatrick said. “We just recovered from the pandemic. Now we’re staring down another crisis—this time political.”
The concern isn't just about fewer visitors, it's about the sentiment behind it. “People don’t want to go where they feel unwelcome,” said Fitzpatrick. “And right now, that’s how America is perceived.”
Conclusion: A Fragile Future for NYC Tourism
New York City’s tourism industry stands at a precarious crossroads. While domestic travel provides a temporary cushion, the growing retreat of international visitors, driven by political turbulence and fear, threatens to unravel years of progress.
Unless broader U.S. policies shift course, the city risks not only economic setbacks but long-term damage to its global reputation as a welcoming, cosmopolitan destination.
